warren

It’s been a tough year for energy pipelines that carry oil and gas from source points to distribution and export terminals. In recent weeks, along with a general rally in energy-related stocks, the worst seems to have passed for the key pipeline companies upon which we rely for energy distribution in this country. Energy Transfer, (NYSE: ET), and Enbridge, NYSE: ENB) – two of the biggest pipeline operators – have seen 25% gains in the last 6-weeks.

In recent times, with the travails that have beset the pipeline business, I’ve been wondering about the intrinsic value of this crucial distribution network. As we will discuss later in this article, growth in this business has been stunted in recent times by court actions in the case of Energy Transfer and regulatory setbacks in the case of Enbridge. There has also been a perception that this business could be impaired by the decline in produced oil and gas volumes this year, which could reduce demand for their services. And, to put a finer point on the depressed valuations, what was their relationship to a realistic value on existing infrastructure?

What is the value of a pipeline that’s been built and installed? And, to add another aspect, one that’s is not under threat of being arbitrarily shut down by some judicial or regulatory agency? Are these companies, with huge installed bases carrying the energy we all need, being given proper credit in their valuations for the worth of their infrastructure? Recent events have left me thinking there is unrealized value in these companies. We will discuss a relative basis for valuing this hardware that was set recently by none other than Warren Buffett with his purchase of the pipeline assets of Dominion Energy, (NYSE: D).

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Source: Oil Price

Image Credit: DonkeyHotey/Flickr

crude-oil-prices

The growing oil boom in the offshore Guyana-Suriname Basin continues to gain pace. After making a series of spectacular discoveries in offshore Guyana energy supermajor ExxonMobil announced that with partner Malaysia’s Petronas it has made a promising discovery off Suriname. The discovery was made in offshore Suriname Block 52, which neighbors Block 58 where Apache has made a slew of hydrocarbon discoveries since the start of 2020. Petronas which owns a 50% interest in the block and is the operator, with Exxon owning the other half, made the find at the much-hyped Sloanea-1 exploration well. It was only in May 2020 when Exxon completed its purchase of a 50% interest in Block 52 from Petronas. The motivation for that investment decision is clear, the considerable potential held by offshore Suriname which shares the Guyana-Suriname Basin with its South American neighbor, and desire to replicate its success in the Stabroek Block.

The Malaysian state-controlled energy company announced:

“The Sloanea-1 exploration well encountered several hydrocarbon-bearing sandstone packages with good reservoir qualities in the Campanian section.”

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Source: Oil Price

crude-oil-shortage

Oil prices were little changed on Wednesday afternoon despite a massive inventory build reported earlier in the day by the Energy Information Administration.

The EIA had reported a crude oil build of 15.189 million barrels for the week, sending U.S. oil inventories to 503.2 million barrels, or 11% above the five-week average for this time of year.

It was the second-largest crude inventory build on record, after a 19+ million barrel build earlier this year, in April, according to EIA data.

Oil prices often react violently to major crude builds, especially when inventories are already high. But, armed with positive vaccine news, oil prices leveled off in the afternoon.

WTI was only trading 0.18% down on the day at 6pm EDT at $45.52, and Brent crude was actually trading up 0.29% on the day at $48.98, as the market is still full of vaccine candidate optimism, notably out of the UK, which started mass vaccinations on Tuesday.

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Source: Oil Price

oil-natural-gas

The oil markets have staged a dramatic rally since early November, with WTI breaking out of a range between the high $30’s and low $40’s for the first time since early this year. In this article, we will take a look at a couple of key drivers for this breakout, and see if it will continue on into the New Year.

What caused the rally?

Fundamentals for crude oil have been gradually improving over the last 6-months. The massive 550 mm supply overhang from early January has been gradually whittled down to just above 475 mm bbls. Now, that may sound like a lot but bear in mind that we go through about 18 mm barrels of oil per day, and with a consumption rate like that, 475 mm bbls accounts for just 26 days of supply. The difference between feast and famine is not always as big as one might think. If you can get all the oil you want, you are feasting. If there is a worry that some of your needs might go unmet, famine mentality sets in. One of the outcomes of this inventory drawdown is a perception of tightening in the futures market for oil, with the later contracts moving into backwardation. Backwardation is a situation in which the current contracted price for a commodity is higher than prices in future months, and expresses short term supply concerns that drive prices higher. This is a positive sign for the market.

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gas-deal

Crude oil prices hesitated today after the Energy Information Administration reported an oil inventory draw of 700,000 barrels for the week to November 27 but a sizeable build in gasoline inventories.

At 488 million barrels, crude oil inventories are still above the five-year average for the season, by about 7 percent.

A day before the EIA released its latest weekly inventory numbers, the American petroleum Institute caused an oil price rally arrest by reporting an inventory build of over 4 million barrels for last week.

This added to pressure coming from OPEC+ which unexpectedly delayed a meeting that should have ended with a decision on whether or not to extend current production cuts of 7.7 million bpd until at least the end of the first quarter of 2021.

In gasoline, the EIA reported an inventory build of 3.5 million barrels for last week, with production averaging 8.6 million bpd. This compared with a build of 2.2 million bpd a week earlier in inventories, and average production of 8.9 million bpd.

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Source: Oil Price

crude-oil-shortage

Despite the surge in coronavirus cases in recent weeks, crude oil demand in the United States could be on track to increase in the coming months as inventories have been steadily declining since their peak levels in the summer. Total U.S. stocks of gasoline and diesel are still trending above their five-year averages, but the oversupply has considerably shrunk since June-July when inventories had built at a fast pace due to the lockdowns in the first COVID-19 wave.

U.S. refiners have managed to reduce the glut in diesel stocks, which weighed heavily on the market three months ago. Refiners have maximized the production of light distillates such as gasoline at the expense of middle distillates such as diesel while curbing overall crude oil processing rates since April.

Now refiners may have to boost crude oil inputs over the coming months and produce more middle distillates than they did over the past months, to prevent diesel inventories from drawing down too much, Reuters market analyst John Kemp writes in a recent column.

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Source: Oil Price

oil-demand

In late April this year, Wet Texas Intermediate nosedived below zero, sending the market into a frenzy. The frenzy ended a day later when WTI rebounded to positive territory. Now, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has issued a report on the unprecedented event. Still, it has failed to answer many questions. The report identified three fundamental factors and five technical factors that contributed to the slump in the U.S. oil benchmark. Among the fundamental ones, the CFTC identified the excess supply on global oil markets, which fused with the unprecedented demand loss resulting from the pandemic-prompted lockdowns and worries about a lack of oil storage space.

Among the technical factors, the CFTC noted the much higher-than-usual open interest in WTI near the expiry date for the May contract and a decline in the liquidity of this contract. The authority noted that on April 20, the day when WTI fell below zero, exchange-based control mechanisms had been triggered, but even they had not been enough to stymie the drop.

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Source: Oil Price

oil

Progress in vaccine development and expectations that OPEC+ will decide in less than two weeks to roll over the current cuts for three months instead of easing them from January 2021 give bulls hopes that the oil market will regain some semblance of a balance next year, pushing prices higher.

Currently, the general consensus among analysts and agencies is that oil prices will indeed see an upside in 2021 as above-average inventories will draw down with a global economic and oil demand recovery.

Several bullish signals in recent weeks have made oil market participants and analysts more optimistic about the oil market next year, despite the current second wave of COVID-19 infections sweeping across Europe and the world’s biggest petroleum consumer, the United States.

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Source: Oil Price

Deepwater-Oil-Exploration

In a move that came as a surprise to some, today’s oil and gas lease round in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico generated substantial interest on Wednesday.

The sum of the high bids clocked in at $120 million, according to the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management.

Of the 14,900 blocks offered in Sale 256, 93 received bids, for a total 517,732 acres that received bids. Twenty-three companies submitted bids.

The deepest blocks generated the most interest, with 36 of the 93 bids coming in for the blocks at 1600 or more meters, and nearly all of the interest was in water deeper than 800 feet.

The block generating the most interest was block NH16-10 Mississippi Canyon. The block that attracted the highest bid was the ultradeepwater block NG15-06 Walker Ridge, which went for almost $12 million to Repsol/Equinor. It was also the block that attracted the highest bid per acre, at $2,083 per acre.

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Source: Oil Price

Global conventional oil and gas discoveries already exceed eight billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) and are projected to settle at around ten billion boe by the end of the year, according to a new Rystad Energy analysis.

About 3.75 billion boe, or 46 percent of total discovered volumes, are gas while liquid volumes are estimated at 4.31 billion boe, Rystad Energy highlights. Yet-uncounted resources in finds like Sakarya in Turkey point to additional upside, according to the independent energy intelligence company.

Rystad Energy noted that 73 new discoveries have been announced this year through October and pointed out that these are evenly split between land and sea with 36 onshore and 37 offshore. Russia leads in terms of discovery volume, with 1.51 billion boe, while Suriname comes second with 1.39 billion boe and the UAE follows third with 1.1 billion boe, Rystad Energy revealed.

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Source: Rigzone